San Juan Citizens Alliance and Animas River Days are collaborating on an exciting new contest! Join us in our effort to Predict the Peak in spring of 2023.
The Animas River peaked at 4,690 cfs on May 26th!
The winning guess was 4,653 cfs.
Please check back next year to compete for the 2024 Predict the Peak.
WHAT IS A PEAK FLOW?
Each spring, as snow melts from the jagged peaks of the San Juan Mountains, the Animas River swells with a pulse of water, bringing the highest streamflows of the year. This “peak flow” event is a treasured time for the river system, as well as for spectators who get to watch the river change from an ice-riddled stream to a roaring demon. Since the Animas River is a free-flowing system, the timing and volume of peak flow in the spring vary each year. Join us in this new skill-based contest and use your research skills to predict the volumetric flow rate (commonly measured as cubic feet per second, or cfs) of the peak flow on the Animas River in 2023!
WHAT DOES MY SUBMISSION CONTRIBUTE TO?
Proceeds from this contest will go towards continuing San Juan Citizens Alliance’s advocacy efforts along the Animas River, as well as funding efforts to host the coveted Animas River Days event. All proceeds from this event will be split between these organizations.
HOW DO I PREDICT THE PEAK?
Research current snowpack conditions to inform your prediction
Look at snowpack levels in the Animas River Basin. Check out the Interactive Map and the Current Snotel Snow Water Equivalent Map
Reference NOAA’s River Flow Projections and Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Look at past trends
Check out the historical peak flow volumes and dates at the Animas River near Durango stream gage
Keep your eye on the weather
When dust on snow occurs, it can dramatically impact the volume and timing of peak flow. Stay informed on layer deposits to help your prediction.
Reference the extended forecast and be sure to look at the nighttime lows in higher elevations!
Try your hand at luck
Not sure where to start? Try a random math equation: Take your cost of monthly rent x 10 + age of your pet – number of Sprinter Vans you saw today ÷ number of days you went skiing this year = Your guess
THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS
A huge thank you to our generous sponsors for donating items!
PRIZES
FIRST PLACE
NRS Ninja PFD and Jack’s Plastic Small Round Bottom Outfitter Bag
Been having trouble staying afloat and keeping gear during your multi-day river trips? Worry no more with a new, low-profile NRS Ninja PFD and the Jack’s Plastic Outfitter Bag – offering 57.35 L of dry storage room!
SECOND PLACE
Mustang Survival’s 35 L Drybag and Jack’s Plastic Collapsible Bucket
We know it is tough to know when you want to keep things dry or soak them while near the river. That’s why our donors have offered solutions for both options! The Mustang Survival’s 35 L Greenwater Submersible Deck Bag will be sure to keep the dry things dry while the Jack’s Plastic Collapsible Bucket offers solutions to soak your friends with a bucket full of river water – without having to dive in yourself!
THIRD PLACE
$200 SOL Paddle Board Gift Card
Check out some accessories or get one step closer to purchasing your dream paddleboard from Telluride-based Sol Paddleboards.
FOURTH PLACE
Jack’s Plastic Outfitter Stow Bag and Choice of Women’s or Men’s Synthetic Flannel Button-Up, donated by Flylow
Need dry storage from these wet snow conditions AND from the water this spring? How about a fashionable synthetic flannel to accommodate river sports AND apres ski? We’ve got you covered with the Jack’s Plastic Outfitter Stow Bag (16 L of dry storage) and your choice of a men’s or women’s Flylow Flannel Button-up shirt!
FIFTH PLACE
Jack’s Plastic Collapsible bucket bag, Rectangular
Staying dry on the river is for SQUARES! That’s why our sponsors at Jack’s Plastic donated their rectangular collapsible bucket bag. One look at that, and you’ll be reminded to fill it up, and dump it out on yourself, your friends, or your gear while it’s baking in the sun!
THE FINE PRINT
This is a contest based on science and skill.
RULES: The winners of this contest will be the top 5 entrants who predict the closest peak flow rate in cfs to the actual peak flow. Each prediction must be a whole number. If more than one entrant submits the same prediction, the person who submitted their entry at a later date will be contacted to change their prediction. If we are unable to confirm a changed prediction with an entrant who submitted a repeated value, we will bump the repeat entry by 1 cfs up, or down, depending on the nearest available value.
PEAK FLOW DETERMINATION: The correct prediction will be based on measurements from USGS stream gauge (Animas River at Durango, Site ID: 09361500) located near the Powerhouse Museum in Durango. San Juan Citizens Alliance will use measurements from this stream gauge to determine the closest 5 predictions.