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The Animas River peaked at 4,690 cfs on May 26th!

Last year’s winning guess was 4,653 cfs.

 

It’s time for the 2024 Predict the Peak.

 Join us in our effort to Predict the Peak this spring.

WHAT IS A PEAK FLOW?

Each spring, as snow melts from the jagged peaks of the San Juan Mountains, the Animas River swells with a pulse of water, bringing the highest streamflows of the year. This “peak flow” event is a treasured time for the river system, as well as for spectators who get to watch the river change from an ice-riddled stream to a roaring demon. Since the Animas River is a free-flowing system, the timing and volume of peak flow in the spring vary each year. Join us in this new skill-based contest and use your research skills to predict the volumetric flow rate (commonly measured as cubic feet per second, or cfs) of the peak flow on the Animas River in 2023!

WHAT DOES MY SUBMISSION CONTRIBUTE TO?

Proceeds from this contest will go towards continuing San Juan Citizens Alliance’s advocacy efforts along the Animas River.

Look at past trends

Keep your eye on the weather

When dust on snow occurs, it can dramatically impact the volume and timing of peak flow. Stay informed on layer deposits to help your prediction.

Reference the extended forecast and be sure to look at the nighttime lows in higher elevations!

Try your hand at luck

THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS

A huge thank you to our generous sponsors for donating items!

PRIZES

FIRST PLACE
SECOND PLACE
THIRD PLACE
FOURTH PLACE
FIFTH PLACE

THE FINE PRINT

This is a contest based on science and skill.

RULES: The winners of this contest will be the top 5 entrants who predict the closest peak flow rate in cfs to the actual peak flow. Each prediction must be a whole number. If more than one entrant submits the same prediction, the person who submitted their entry at a later date will be contacted to change their prediction. If we are unable to confirm a changed prediction with an entrant who submitted a repeated value, we will bump the repeat entry by 1 cfs up, or down, depending on the nearest available value.

PEAK FLOW DETERMINATION: The correct prediction will be based on measurements from USGS stream gauge (Animas River at Durango, Site ID: 09361500) located near the Powerhouse Museum in Durango. San Juan Citizens Alliance will use measurements from this stream gauge to determine the closest 5 predictions.